Streak Length Ignores the Size of the Raise
A 25 year dividend streak records one habit. The board raised the annual payout again. On October 2, 2026 the Treasury daily yield curve put the 10 year rate at 5.28 percent. Long running raisers still paid less cash than that note, and the latest increases ran from 10 percent down to half a cent.
A streak records direction
In market shorthand, a dividend champion has raised its annual dividend for at least 25 years in a row. The label marks a board that kept paying a bit more through recessions and bad industry years. A large raise and a token raise both qualify. Cash yield and dividend coverage sit outside the test. That gap matters when the 10 year Treasury pays 5.28 percent.
Half a cent and 10 percent fund different promises
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is the large raise. On November 12, 2025 the board added $0.16 to the quarterly dividend, taking it from $1.54 to $1.70. ADP called that a 10 percent increase and the 51st straight year of a higher dividend. The $1.70 rate was the dividend paid on October 1, 2026.
Fiscal 2026, ended June 30, brought $21.9 billion of revenue and diluted earnings of $10.94 a share, up 10 percent. Employer Services client retention was 92.1 percent, and bookings there rose 6 percent to $2.2 billion. Renewed payroll work is what makes the streak plausible. The $6.80 annual dividend is 62 percent of those earnings. At the October 2 close of $257.68 the cash yield is 2.64 percent, which is 2.64 percentage points under the note. The raise has to earn that gap back.
Albemarle (ALB) is the small end of the same rule. On May 5, 2026 the board declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.405, or $1.62 a year. On July 21 it declared $0.41, or $1.64 a year, payable October 1 to holders of record on September 11. The increase is half a cent a quarter, about 1.2 percent.
The quarter under that decision was large. For the three months ended June 30, net sales were $1.74 billion, up 31 percent from $1.33 billion. Net income attributable to Albemarle was $480 million, against $23 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $858 million, up 155 percent from $336 million. The company tied the sales jump mainly to higher energy storage prices, and segment sales rose from $718 million to $1.28 billion. A rebound that rides lithium prices can fade, which is a reason to keep the common raise tiny. A screen that watches only direction still scores those two extra cents as another successful year.
Preferred stock is paid first. Mandatory convertible preferred dividends were $41.7 million in the quarter. At the October 2 close of $104.59, the new $1.64 common rate yields 1.57 percent.
PepsiCo yields 4.70 percent and still trails the note
PepsiCo (PEP) has the long record and the yield closest to the Treasury. On July 17, 2026 the board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.48 and called it a 4 percent increase from the year earlier quarter. The annualized rate moved from $5.69 to $5.92. PepsiCo has paid a cash dividend every quarter since 1965, and it marked 2026 as the 54th straight annual increase. Shareholders of record on September 4 were paid on September 30.
In the 12 weeks ended June 13, net revenue was $24.18 billion, up 6.4 percent. After removing currency moves and deals, organic revenue rose 2.4 percent. Core earnings per share, PepsiCo’s adjusted profit figure, rose 4 percent to $2.20, and core operating margin eased from 17.2 percent to 16.8 percent. The dividend raise matches that core profit growth.
The full year guide stays in that lane. PepsiCo still expects 2026 organic revenue growth of 2 percent to 4 percent, and core earnings per share growth of 4 percent to 6 percent if exchange rates are held still. Planned cash returns are about $8.9 billion, and about $7.9 billion of that is the dividend. At the October 2 close of $125.89, $5.92 yields 4.70 percent. The 10 year note paid 5.28 percent the same day. The gap is 0.58 percentage points of cash income. Later raises, or a higher share price, have to replace it.
A 10 percent raise can follow a weaker quarter
Badger Meter (BMI) separates raise size from current momentum. On August 14, 2026 the board raised the quarterly dividend 10 percent, from $0.40 to $0.44, a $1.76 annual rate, and called it the 34th straight year of an annual increase. The new dividend was payable September 11.
The quarter reported on July 22 was down from a year earlier. Sales were $222.3 million, 6.6 percent below $238.1 million, and about 10 percent above the first quarter. Utility water sales fell 8.1 percent. The quarterly report ties that drop to uneven pacing of meter projects, with some offset from higher software and service revenue on equipment already in the field. Operating earnings fell 12 percent to $39.4 million, and the operating margin moved from 18.8 percent to 17.7 percent. Diluted earnings were $1.02, down from $1.17. UDlive, acquired effective May 1, added $2.0 million of sales, too little to offset the decline.
First half diluted earnings were $1.95, already above the new $1.76 annual dividend. At the October 2 close of $127.77, the yield is 1.38 percent. If project pacing stays uneven, the 10 percent raise still goes out and the earnings cushion shrinks. Coverage today says nothing about the timing of municipal orders.
Price the raise against the note
The checks do different jobs. ADP yields 2.64 percent after a 10 percent raise that uses 62 percent of earnings, so the buyer is counting on growth to beat the note. PepsiCo yields 4.70 percent after a 4 percent raise that matches core profit. Badger Meter yields 1.38 percent after a 10 percent raise that followed a down quarter. Albemarle yields 1.57 percent after adding half a cent on a profit jump from $23 million to $480 million.
The useful sort is raise size, the share of earnings it uses, and the Treasury income skipped to own the shares. A 25 year habit is a reason to open the filing. With the 10 year note at 5.28 percent, it is a weak reason to treat the next dollar of dividend as large or safe.
Source note: Original Sure Dividend article